The Ad Break-Even Kit
The break-even ROAS your margin sets, the most an order, a click and a thousand impressions can cost, and every campaign read on matching counts, blended by volume and tested against noise before you scale, hold or cut
DoHype's ROAS, Conversion Rate and CTR calculators each answer one ratio. None says where your line is: the ROAS Calculator used to call revenue minus ad spend "profit" (its default $4,000 on $1,000 read as a 300% ROI, which at a 25% gross margin only breaks even). None says which count to divide by, how to add campaigns together, or whether a difference between two rates is real. The Ad Break-Even Kit draws the line from one order's gross margin and works back to the click. In its worked example, a $60 order that keeps 40% breaks even at a ROAS of 2.5, may cost at most $24, and at 2.5% of clicks converting can pay at most $0.60 a click and $9.00 per thousand impressions. It then reads results honestly: the same 42 orders read 2.1% per click and 3% per user, three campaigns blend to a 2.61 ROAS above the line while one loses $414 inside it, and 2 of 40 against 3 of 40 is a "50% lift" with no evidence of any difference. Each campaign gets a scale, hold or cut verdict from its 95% range against the conversion rate its cost per click needs. Every figure is an example computed by code, with no benchmark rates and no promise of sales, ROAS or results; it is arithmetic, not financial advice. Included: 25 printable pages, 7 steps, a line sheet, a campaign readout sheet, a test log, a scale, hold or cut card, tables of break-even lines, conversion-rate ranges and test sizes, and a personalised sheet worked from the numbers you enter in the ROAS, Conversion Rate and CTR calculators.
What’s inside
- Step 1: your break-even ROAS from one order's gross margin, with revenue minus spend set against gross profit after ads
- Step 2: the most an order can cost, the profit each order keeps, and the target cost per order and ROAS, rounded the safe way
- Step 3: the most a click and a thousand impressions can cost, from your conversion rate and CTR, rounded down
- Step 4: conversion rates on matching counts (clicks, sessions or users), with the Google Ads and Google Analytics definitions quoted
- Step 5: blending campaigns by volume, never by averaging rates, and Simpson's paradox when the traffic mix differs
- Step 6: noise or a winner: 95% ranges, a two-proportion test or Fisher's exact test, percentage points vs percent, and what each test assumes
- Step 7: scale, hold or cut each campaign by its range against the conversion rate its cost per click needs
- Working pages: a line sheet, a campaign readout sheet, a test log, and a scale, hold or cut card
- Reference tables: break-even ROAS and bid ceilings for six margins, conversion-rate ranges by sample size, and visitors needed per test
- A personalised sheet worked from the numbers you enter in the ROAS, Conversion Rate and CTR calculators
Run one of the free calculators first and buy from that page, and this sheet is computed from your own figures. Buy from here and the pack still arrives complete — the sheet simply has no numbers of yours to work from yet.
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